InSights

UK-ETS Analyst Note: Market Outlook

The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) commenced on January 1, 2021, succeeding the EU ETS for the UK. Covering about 1,000 entities spanning energy, manufacturing, and aviation sectors, including flights to Switzerland and the European Economic Area, the UK ETS is a significant player in carbon markets. cCarbon UK-ETS Analyst Note explores key policy shifts, market dynamics, and future projections that will shape the UK's carbon market landscape, emphasizing recent policy changes such as a reduced emissions cap, auction modifications, and the scheme's expansion into new sectors. Additionally, this analysis focuses on the intriguing price dynamics within the UK ETS, particularly the notable divergence between United Kingdom Allowances (UKAs) and European Union Allowances (EUAs). It delves into auction summaries, market behaviour through ICE UKA futures, and emissions contributions from various sectors, highlighting the power sector's consistent significance and the growing impact of aviation emissions. Projections are also discussed, indicating potential market bullishness stemming from a tightening market in two scenarios: a base case reflecting ongoing decarbonization trends and an accelerated low-emission scenario.

Key Components:

1. Key Policy Updates

2. Price Trends

3. Power Sector Dynamics

4. Secondary Market Dynamics

5. Industry Emissions and Trends

6. Ccinfo Demand-Supply Outlook

7. CCinfo Bank index for UKAs